2027 ELECTIONS: CIVIL SOCIETY GROUP WARNS OF SHRINKING POLITICAL SPACE, VIOLENCE, INEC CREDIBILITY CRISIS

Situation Room raises alarm over opposition intimidation, questionable voters’ register, electoral technology and rising threats to credible polls

The Nigeria Civil Society Situation Room has raised the alarm over growing threats to Nigeria’s democratic process ahead of the 2027 general elections, warning that the credibility, transparency and inclusiveness of the polls could be undermined if urgent measures are not taken.

With the presidential and National Assembly elections scheduled for January 16, 2027, and the governorship and State Houses of Assembly elections fixed for February 6, the organisation said developments in the political environment were raising serious concerns about the country’s readiness to conduct credible elections.

In a statement, Situation Room identified major political realignments, internal party crises, restrictions on political competition, inflammatory political statements, election-related violence, concerns over electoral technology and irregularities in the voters’ register as issues requiring immediate attention.

It also expressed concern over the independence and operational preparedness of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), particularly amid growing public scrutiny of the electoral umpire ahead of the crucial elections.

According to the organisation, these developments are taking place against the backdrop of worsening insecurity, economic hardship and increasing public dissatisfaction with the responsiveness and accountability of democratic institutions.

While acknowledging the constitutional rights of political parties and individuals to associate, organise, campaign and contest elections, Situation Room stressed that credible elections require more than the presence of multiple political parties or administrative preparations by INEC.

It maintained that voters must be allowed to freely express their choices, political candidates must have equal opportunities to compete, institutions must enforce electoral laws impartially, and every valid vote must be accurately counted and reflected in the final results.

The organisation warned that Nigeria cannot afford an electoral process in which democratic freedoms are compromised, political competition is restricted and institutional failures weaken public confidence in the outcome.

It subsequently highlighted eight critical areas requiring urgent intervention ahead of the 2027 general elections.

Political Parties and Shrinking Democratic Space

Situation Room identified the growing crisis within political parties as one of the major threats to the credibility of the forthcoming elections.

It expressed concern over continuing defections, internal leadership disputes, controversial primaries, disagreements over party structures and prolonged legal battles over candidate nominations.

The organisation specifically referenced developments within major political parties, including the African Democratic Congress (ADC), Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and other opposition platforms, describing them as indications of the challenges confronting internal party democracy and political stability.

Although it acknowledged that defections and political alliances are legitimate features of democracy, it warned that unresolved disputes, exclusionary nomination processes and competing leadership claims could limit voters’ choices and undermine confidence in the electoral process.

It also raised concerns over allegations of interference in opposition political activities, including claims by the ADC in Sokoto State that its members had faced intimidation and difficulties securing venues for lawful political gatherings.

Another major concern was the rising cost of campaign billboard permits across several states.

According to the organisation, presidential billboard permit fees reportedly stand at ₦200 million in Abia State, ₦150 million in Enugu, Kogi and Cross River, ₦75 million in Rivers, ₦50 million in Anambra and ₦40 million in Benue.

The figures, it noted, are significantly higher than conventional billboard rental rates, which reportedly range between ₦200,000 and ₦15 million monthly.

While acknowledging that state governments have defended the charges as regulatory fees applicable to all political parties, Situation Room questioned whether such enormous costs would not place opposition candidates and parties without substantial financial resources at a disadvantage.

It also clarified that reports of a ₦750 million billboard permit fee in the Federal Capital Territory had been denied by the media aide to the FCT Minister.

However, it maintained that allegations of opposition parties being denied access to strategic billboard locations, having their campaign materials destroyed or facing restrictions on political advertisements remained troubling.

The organisation further condemned the reported attack on female ADC supporters during a campaign activity in Sokoto on October 28, 2026.

The party alleged that suspected thugs seized its branded campaign vehicle and demanded money before releasing it, while security personnel reportedly failed to intervene.

On political violence and insecurity, Situation Room cited the CLEEN Foundation’s Election Security Threat Assessment, which reportedly documented 70 physical election-related incidents across 19 states and the FCT between January 1 and October 27, 2026.

The assessment also recorded 27 fatalities across 20 incidents, highlighting the growing security challenges surrounding political activities ahead of the elections.

The organisation expressed particular concern over a reported statement by former Deputy Senate President, Ovie Omo-Agege, on October 23, 2026, in which he allegedly warned that anyone involved in rigging the 2027 elections would be killed, describing the warning as “rig and die”.

Situation Room condemned the statement, stressing that threats of violence have no place in a democratic society, regardless of whether they are directed at alleged electoral offenders.

It also cited the reported killing of Ifeanyi Nwolie following an attack on supporters of the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC) in Enugu on October 10.

Other incidents included an attack on an NDC candidate’s convoy in Ebonyi State, which reportedly left one person dead and three others injured, as well as an alleged attack on the ADC governorship candidate’s convoy near Sokoto Airport on October 30.

The organisation called on the Nigeria Police Force and other security agencies to demonstrate absolute neutrality in handling political disputes and ensure that those responsible for sponsoring, organising and carrying out electoral violence are promptly investigated and prosecuted.

Situation Room also examined the provisions of the Electoral Act 2026, particularly the safeguards introduced for transparent election result management.

Although it welcomed the provision for electronic transmission of polling-unit results to INEC’s Result Viewing Portal (IReV), it expressed concern over the exception permitting the use of Form EC8A where electronic transmission fails due to communication challenges.

It warned that the provision could create room for disputes and potential manipulation if clear procedures are not established.

The organisation therefore urged INEC to publicly explain how genuine communication failures would be identified, documented and verified.

It also called for clear guidelines on the preservation of election results, reconciliation of electronic and physical records, and independent scrutiny throughout the collation process.

The organisation raised questions about INEC’s independence and institutional credibility following nominations and reappointments to the Commission announced by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu on October 16, 2026.

It expressed concern over the reported family relationship between nominee Professor Mustapha Aliu and the Sokoto State Governor, who is seeking re-election on the platform of the All Progressives Congress (APC).

Situation Room also questioned the redeployment of Mrs Oluyemi Titilayo Adeyemi-Showunmi from INEC’s Lagos office to head its Electoral Operations Department.

The organisation noted that she is married to Segun Showunmi, a member of the APC Presidential Campaign Council, and questioned the decision to assign her to such a sensitive department when other departments were available within the Commission.

It stressed that electoral institutions must not only operate independently but must also demonstrate impartiality and avoid situations capable of creating doubts about their neutrality.

Another major concern highlighted by Situation Room was the integrity of the national voters’ register.

The organisation described as alarming reports of questionable voter records and photographs suspected to have been generated using Artificial Intelligence in INEC’s preliminary register published on October 26, 2026.

The register reportedly contains more than 103 million voters following the addition of 10,772,421 new registrations.

Situation Room urged INEC to publish a comprehensive report detailing its verification and data-cleaning processes before the final register is certified on December 15, 2026.

It also called for urgent attention to issues surrounding Permanent Voter Card (PVC) collection, the functionality of the Bimodal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS), personnel training, procurement procedures, cybersecurity and contingency arrangements.

The organisation warned that weaknesses in these areas could compromise the credibility of the elections and create unnecessary disputes over the legitimacy of the results.

Situation Room further expressed concern over the abuse of incumbency, the possible deployment of public resources for partisan political interests and the growing threat of vote buying.

It called on INEC, the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC), the Independent Corrupt Practices and Other Related Offences Commission (ICPC) and the Nigeria Police Force to strengthen financial monitoring and ensure that electoral offences are investigated and punished without political considerations.

According to the organisation, elections must be determined by the free choices of voters rather than the financial strength of political parties, access to public funds or the ability of candidates to induce voters with money.

It emphasised that public resources must not be converted into campaign machinery for political advantage.

The final issue raised by Situation Room concerned the role of the judiciary in resolving electoral disputes ahead of the 2027 general elections.

The organisation urged the courts to ensure that electoral cases are handled promptly, transparently and in accordance with the law.

It warned that prolonged litigation, delayed judgments and uncertainty surrounding party leadership or candidate eligibility could disrupt election preparations and undermine public confidence.

It therefore stressed the need for timely judicial interventions to ensure that political parties, candidates, electoral officials and voters have sufficient clarity before the commencement of the elections.

Situation Room maintained that the responsibility for credible elections does not rest solely on INEC but also requires the commitment of political parties, security agencies, the judiciary, government institutions and citizens.

It warned that safeguarding Nigeria’s democracy must begin long before election day, insisting that political freedoms, institutional independence, electoral transparency and the protection of voters’ rights must be guaranteed throughout the electoral process.